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"Assessment of Exposure-Response Functions for Rocket-Emission Toxicants"

  • 24 Apr 2024 06:54
    Message # 13347457

    Comment:  As Vandenberg gets a clean bill of health on missile site sampling,  here's a look back.  Wonder whatever happened on the issue of rockets being launched versus agriculture chemicals leaking in?   In other words by not checking for ag chemicals what about other chemicals unique to Vandenbeg?

    Read to the highlighted text below to see the answer about rocket chemicals.


    When deciding to launch a rocket under prevailing weather conditions, commanders at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California and at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) in Florida must evaluate the possibility that toxic concentrations of wind-blown rocket emissions might reach military or civilian populations. To assist commanders in estimating the risk of such exposures, the Air Force is developing the Launch Area Toxic Risk Analysis (LATRA) model. It contains two major components: (1) a dispersion model that predicts downwind exposure concentrations and (2) exposure-response functions (ERFs) that relate the estimated exposure concentrations to expected health effects.

    In 1995, the Air Force Air Space Command asked the National Research Council (NRC) for an independent review of the ERFs in LATRA. The NRC was asked to focus on the toxicity of the three major rocket emissions—hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)—and several characteristics of LATRA-ERFs, including the identification of sensitive populations; definition of severity of effects; selection of independent variables in each exposure-response model; choice of appropriate analytic form for the ERFs (e.g., lognormal or probit); quantification of ERFs for each of the emissions; and representation and propagation of uncertainties associated with the LATRA-ERF model. The NRC assigned this project to the Committee on Toxicology (COT), which convened the Subcommittee on Rocket-Emission Toxicants to respond to the request. Subcommittee members were chosen for their expertise in inhalation toxicology, pharmacology, biostatistics, risk assessment, and environmental health, and they worked withcompensation in national service, as do all NRC committee members. This report presents the subcommittee's evaluations, conclusions, and recommendations.


    In summary, the LATRA-ERF model is a valid concept, but the current lack of toxicological data makes its implementation problematic. Some specific deficiencies have been noted above by the subcommittee, and some improvements in the LATRA-ERF model might be possible. In the interim, the subcommittee suggests that a hazard-quotient hazard-index approach be considered as a possible alternative. This approach would allow an estimate of the number of people exceeding a reference exposure level below which health effects are unlikely to occur. This approach would not attempt to estimate the incidence of health effects in an exposed population.


    Bottom Line:  We are all looking for a Camp Lejeune moment,  the ANSWER.

    Camp Lejeune water contamination

    The Camp Lejeune water contamination problem occurred at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune in Jacksonville, North Carolina, from 1953 to 1987. During that time, United States Marine Corps personnel and families at the base bathed in and ingested tap water contaminated with harmful chemicals at all concentrations from 240 to 3,400 times current safe levels. Wikipedia

    Last modified: 24 Apr 2024 14:45 | Anonymous member

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